And then, Nasheed’s temporary transfer to three-day house arrest was extended to eight weeks, after a doctor advised a stress-free environment and rest for back pain.
But why such sudden magnanimity from a man who has been fast pushing the tiny Indian Ocean nation, one of the world’s most favourite honeymoon destination, back to dictatorship?
That question has puzzled Maldivians as well the world.
For some time now, the political grapevine has been abuzz with rumours that Yameen is unwell and needs urgent medical attention. While no one wants to confirm what exactly is the nature of the disease, that the President is suffering from a rare brain disease and medical science is yet to come up with a cure for the illness. Though some sources close to the regime insist that it’s a degenerating disease of the spine.
Degenerative spine conditions involve the gradual loss of normal structure and function of the spine over time. They are usually caused by aging, but may also be the result of tumors, infections or arthritis. Pressure on the spinal cord and nerve roots caused by degeneration can be caused by slipped or herniated discs.
But sources say that that he is suffering from Hydrocephalus, a condition characterized by an abnormal accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) within the ventricles of the brain. According to John Hopkins Medical Centre, CSF surrounds the brain and spinal cord. When the circulatory path of the CSF is blocked, fluid begins to accumulate, causing the ventricles to enlarge and the pressure inside the head to increase, resulting in hydrocephalus.
Focusnews.com also sent a question to the President’s Office in The Maldives, but it was never answered.
But the real intrigue begins here.
Yameen’s critical health has forced him to travel abroad for surgery. After his recent China visit, Yameen had travelled to Germany for the same treatment in an undisclosed hospital.
Sources say that he wants a trusted person as the Vice-President of the Indian Ocean nation when he goes into surgery, speculated to be after 26 July 2015. Yameen wants his much-hated Tourism Minister Adeeb to be installed as VP but to do that, he has to amend the age brackets in the constitution in the Maldivian parliament – the Majlis.
To suit his needs, the ruling Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM) wants to replace present vice-president Dr Mohamed Jameel Ahmed with tourism minister Adeeb.
Adeeb is 33 now and ineligible for the vice-presidency as the Constitution states candidates must be 35.
Focusnews.com also contacted VP Jameel over twitter for his reaction, but he remains mum.
THE MEDICINE
But the biggest problem that Yameen’s PPM faces is numbers in the parliament, where MDP has a strong contingent of 22, to enact the change in the constitution. That’s where Nasheed comes in. Yameen needs MDP’s support to get Adeeb on the VP’s chair because he fears a reverse coup by Jameel and his half-brother, the former dictator, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.A three-quarters majority or 64 votes will be required for it to pass in the Majlis.
The PPM and its ally the Maldivian Development Alliance (MDA) only control 48 seats of the 85-member house. The JP has 11 MPs while the MDP has 22 MPs.
The JP, at a parliamentary group meeting, issued a three-line whip. Only seven of the 11 MPs reportedly attended the meeting.
To make up the number, Yameen needs 22 MPs of MDP, along with 11 of JP, 1 from Adalath Party (AP) and 2 independents to support him along with his own 44 and 5 from his allies, the MDA.
ENTER THE SPIN DOCTOR – LORD VOLDERMORT
But what turned the wheels of thinking was not just international pressure, but Labour spin-doctor Lord Mandelson, the man who gave former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s public relations push. These days, apart from helping Vladimir Putin to polish his image, Lord Mandelson is reviving his old links with the Maldives.Lord Mandelson, a key figure in the governments of former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, is currently running for the position of University of Manchester chancellor. Mandelson is being seen as the hand behind the appointment of Omnia Strategy LLP, belonging to Cherie Blair, the wife of Tony Blair, by the Maldivian government to brush-up its fast sliding international image.
Eyewitnesses confirmed that President Yameen and his tourism minister Ahmed Adeeb paid a visit to ‘spin-doctor’ Peter Mendelson at one of the high-end resorts two weeks back. Sources confirmed a closed-door meeting between Mendelson, Yameen and Ahmed Adeeb.
Sources say that Lord Mandelson advised Yameen to release Nasheed to ease the international pressure but use the courts in such a manner that the first democratically elected president of the country cannot fight elections ever.
“He basically gave two suggestions. One, keep Nasheed out of jail. Two, keep Nasheed out of running for the presidency at the same time. Otherwise, Yameen can never survive,” one PPM MP, close to Gayoom, told focusnews.com.
In a joint press release, the Foreign Ministry and the attorney general’s office in the Maldives said the hiring of London-based Omnia Strategy LLP “underscores the government’s commitment to strengthen democratic institutions of the State and to promote a culture of respect for human rights in the Maldives, adhering to international norms, while retaining its unique character.”
The foreign ministry declined to reveal the cost and length of the contract or the details of Omnia Strategy’s work in the Maldives.
Omnia Strategy, which has recently opened an office in Washington DC, describes itself as a “pioneering international law firm that provides strategic counsel to governments, corporates and private clients.”
In addition to providing legal counsel, the company specializes in public relations.
The firm advises the governments of oil-rich Gabon and Kazakhstan. Gabon’s president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, was elected in 2009 after his father who ruled over the country for 42 years died in 2009.
Peter Mandelson’s clients reportedly include a Russian defence company, while Tony Blair advises the dictatorship in Kazakhstan.
THE ROADBLOCK – RIFT BETWEEN THE BROTHERS
Tensions between Gayoom and Yameen is legendary in the Maldives, though no one speaks about it openly.But now the frictions are out in the open.
PPM MPs have accused VP Jameel, a close confidante of Gayoom and one of the masterminds of the coup d’etat against Nasheed in 2012, of disloyalty and incompetence. On Thursday, for the first time in a public declaration, a parliamentarian from PPM has called on Jameel to resign before he is impeached by the parliament.
“We do not want a vice-president to be a monument at the President’s Office,” MP Ibrahim Sujau said.
His comments, the first public declaration of MPs intent to impeach Jameel and were made at a dinner hosted by tourism minister Ahmed Adeeb for the party’s young supporters last night.
“We do not want to hide what we want to do anymore. We are going appoint tourism minister Ahmed Adeeb as the vice-president of Maldives before July 26,” said Shujau.
July 26 marks the 50th anniversary of Maldives’ independence from the British.
Sources say that Yameen will go to surgery after installing his choice of VP and giving his speech on July 26. He returned from Germany after medical consultation this Sunday (June 21).
To impeach Jameel, a two-thirds majority or 57 votes will be required. The PPM and its ally Maldives Development Alliance hold 48 seats in the 85-member house.
The parliament on Wednesday passed the first amendment to the constitution setting age limits of 30 to 65 years for the presidency and vice presidency, with overwhelming tripartisan support.
But in a letter to the PPM Parliamentary Group last Saturday (June 20) informing of the party’s disapproval of this amendment to get Jameel out, Gayoom hit back strongly and requested the Parliamentary Group to send the case up to the party council to deliberate.
But on that very evening, the PPM Parliamentary Group decided to go ahead with the vote in parliament.
Yameen, through Adeeb control the PPM/MDA Parliamentary Group while Gayoom hold sway in the council, but some say with a narrow margin these days.
It was not too long ago Gayoom also spoke in favor of MP Nazim, another mastermind of the coup d’etat against the country’s first democratic government ever in 2012, who was sentenced for life for corruption.
President Yameen walked out of the meeting held at the artificial beach in capital Male that night in public view.
Gayoom’s son Faarish recently won the parliamentary seat vacated by Nazim.
Gayoom’s opposition despite his diminished political clout is significant. It is believed there are many votes Gayoom can still control within PPM and JP.
Sources close to Gayoom suspect that the former dictator is against changing the constitution like this and replacing Jameel with a ‘worse thug with a worse reputation’ was bad for party and government both domestically and internationally.
“But Yameen is in no mood to listen. Gayoom is peeved. The former dictator and aspiring autocrat is at war, with each other,” says an opposition leader from the MDP on conditions of anonymity.
THE INDIAN CONNECTION
It was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direct intervention which has set the ball rolling for a political settlement of sorts in the Maldives. Modi is believed to have told Gayoom, who was recently in New Delhi, to ‘act like an elder statesman and sort the mess’ in the country. India is also believed to have given a stern warning to Yameen’s government over Nasheed’s health in prison.Nasheed’s wife Laila, currently in Europe lobbying Western governments for increasing pressure on the Maldives, has also requested a meeting with Prime Minister Modi.
THE ENDGAME
So what happens now? Real closed-door negotiations between Yameen, Nasheed and Gayoom likely.With just over four weeks left before July 26, everyone is left speculating on how the chips will fall and how much of a political solution will evolve within this window.
Sources say that Nasheed, though in no mood to compromise against a brutal and corrupt regime that sent him to jail for 13 years on trumped up terrorism charges, will now use this opportunity to get his freedom. “Because without Nasheed in mainstream politics, there is no hope for democracy to ever shine and prosper in the Maldives,” says Suhas Chakma, Director of Asian Centre Of Human Rights (ACHR)
The first steps to that effect has been taken. The main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has decided to begin talks with the government without former President Mohamed Nasheed as a representative.
Though the government had rejected Nasheed as the MDP’s representative on the grounds that the opposition leader is serving a 13-year jail sentence, MDP spokesperson Imthiyaz Fahmy said that the party’s national executive committee decided to proceed with the talks on Wednesday with the expectation that Nasheed will be allowed to participate at a later stage.
“The decision was made after discussions with Nasheed as well. He did not want to be a barrier to discussions between the party and the government,” said Fahmy.
Parliamentary group leader Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih will be the sole MDP representative at talks.
Fahmy said the MDP’s main demand is the withdrawal of charges against opposition politicians and supporters arrested from protests.
Some 400 people have been arrested since Nasheed’s arrest in February and many face criminal prosecution, he said.
WHERE EAGLES DARE
In a brazen regression of democracy, three months back, Nasheed, was manhandled and physically dragged to a show-trial at the hands of a court full of tainted and biased judges. The entire judiciary of the Maldives, which is one of the key remnants of ex-dictator Gayoom, has been used as a rubber stamp by President Yameen, half brother of the ex-dictator, against political opponents and the democratic institutions like HRCM or the Election Commission of the Maldives which seek to ensure independence, impartiality and objectivity. Nasheed was found guilty on charges of terrorism and sentenced to 13 years in prison (on a trumped up terrorism charge for arresting of Criminal Court Judge Abdulla Mohamed during his presidency), ostensibly to take him out of the political mainstream in the Maldives.On Thursday, in a major shift in the UK government’s stance on the Maldives, British Prime Minister David Cameron has urged the Maldives to release jailed ex-president Mohamed Nasheed and other political prisoners.
While the UK has continued to raise concern over the apparent lack of due process in Nasheed’s rushed trial on terrorism charges, it had previously stopped short of calling for the opposition leader’s release.
Cameron is the first head of government or state to demand Nasheed’s release. In a tweet following a meeting with Nasheed’s wife Laila Ali and lawyer Amal Clooney in London on Wednesday, he also called for political dialogue in the Maldives.
Amal Clooney along with other international lawyers and jurists have presented a case in UN Working Group on Arbitrary Arrest while waiting for the groups deliberations and using the opportunity to lobby for Nasheed’s release.
For Yameen and his coterie, the cards have started to fall extremely close to the chest. And with his rift with half-brother Gayoom out in the open coupled with a fatal disease, the brutally corrupt house of his presidency can collapse anytime soon.
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